predicting stock price development using stock options data

Hi. I am new to this forum, s I am not completely sure if this thread is correctly placed. I am currently studying the market for stock options as indicative of future stock returns. I have data and what I need help with is confirming whether the rationale behind some of the variables I "designed".

The first one is the ratio of put-implied volatility and call-implied volatity. The volatility can, as I have learned, be thought of as the most subjective input in the pricing model (Black Scholes). When there is a difference in the implied volatility of a call and the put, can the IV-ratio difference from 1 indicate whether the market is somewhat more positive or negative towards the underlying stock of the option?

Second question relates to the price spread of call and put options. If one sees the size of the spread as an indication of how willing market participants are towards entering and offering certain option contracts, can I use the ratio/difference for call and put options as an indication of expected future development of the underlying stock?

I am fully aware that none of these are certain or necessary relations.

Mons

 

Voluptate inventore voluptatibus eius eaque voluptatem enim cum consequatur. Animi numquam aperiam quam molestiae quo. Qui quae quod aut dolore.

Illo vitae et esse quos aut dolores quas. Qui esse est vel. Sequi earum dolor esse quam dolor.

I'm an AI bot trained on the most helpful WSO content across 17+ years.

Career Advancement Opportunities

June 2024 Investment Banking

  • Jefferies & Company 02 99.4%
  • Perella Weinberg Partners New 98.9%
  • Lazard Freres 01 98.3%
  • Harris Williams & Co. 24 97.7%
  • Goldman Sachs 16 97.1%

Overall Employee Satisfaction

June 2024 Investment Banking

  • Harris Williams & Co. 18 99.4%
  • JPMorgan Chase 10 98.9%
  • Lazard Freres 05 98.3%
  • Morgan Stanley 05 97.7%
  • Moelis & Company 01 97.1%

Professional Growth Opportunities

June 2024 Investment Banking

  • Lazard Freres 01 99.4%
  • Jefferies & Company 02 98.9%
  • Perella Weinberg Partners 18 98.3%
  • Goldman Sachs 16 97.7%
  • Moelis & Company 05 97.1%

Total Avg Compensation

June 2024 Investment Banking

  • Director/MD (5) $648
  • Vice President (21) $373
  • Associates (92) $259
  • 3rd+ Year Analyst (14) $181
  • Intern/Summer Associate (33) $170
  • 2nd Year Analyst (68) $168
  • 1st Year Analyst (206) $159
  • Intern/Summer Analyst (148) $101
notes
16 IB Interviews Notes

“... there’s no excuse to not take advantage of the resources out there available to you. Best value for your $ are the...”

Leaderboard

1
redever's picture
redever
99.2
2
Betsy Massar's picture
Betsy Massar
99.0
3
BankonBanking's picture
BankonBanking
99.0
4
Secyh62's picture
Secyh62
99.0
5
GameTheory's picture
GameTheory
98.9
6
dosk17's picture
dosk17
98.9
7
CompBanker's picture
CompBanker
98.9
8
kanon's picture
kanon
98.9
9
numi's picture
numi
98.8
10
Jamoldo's picture
Jamoldo
98.8
success
From 10 rejections to 1 dream investment banking internship

“... I believe it was the single biggest reason why I ended up with an offer...”